HOW WE CAP: What is Line Movement Behavior?
The idea behind line movement behavior is being able to identify the motivation of the people (sportsbooks) moving a point spread or under-over line. This seems like a simple enough task because most handicappers are aware of a line change and what it can possibly mean. RoyalCoyle.com looks exclusively at line movement behavior, as we feel it is the most important element to handicapping a game properly. In essence , all other handicapping variables are measured and weighed by the people making the lines. No matter how long a handicapper studies, their effort cannot match that of the team of expert handicappers who work for the linesmakers. Therefore, their behavior when setting the lines, along with their behavior when moving the lines, can paint a clear picture of what the book may favor.
It is important to understand the weakness in sportsbook lines versus many casino games. Every slot, card game, table game, etc. in a casino or online casino environment is mathematically designed to give the house the advantage. Over time, with many people wagering on each game, the book is sure to end in profit. Just like in sports gambling, there are many propositional bets where the payout may be much larger than the wager but the chances of winning are actually much less than the payout is ultimately worth. Gamblers can get lucky or hit a "hot" table or deck of cards, but over time the math works itself out for the casino's advantage.
We have conceded that sportsbooks (or bookies) rarely have losing seasons, if ever. One can point to the vigorous as a way for the book to gain a mathematical advantage over time - which of course, it does. That is just the gravy for the book to service the public. They win much more than the average gambler and we believe this is due to deceptive lines and line movements. The idea of being able to deceivethe general public with a line that looks too good to be true, give a very human quality to this particular type of gambling.
Since casino games are guaranteed profit through the laws of mathematics, there is no reason to deceive the player. They will play and they might win. However, over time, the math will pull their winning figure towards the statistical makeup of the game, which is defined to be in the casino's advantage. Sportsbook's lines are not guaranteed to return the book profit by mathematics. The only way the mathematics works out for the book's advantage is if they manage to spread the money out evenly on both sides, which we feel is very hard to do over the course of every single gameacross all leagues that lines are offered. Therefore, for the book to continually profit, they must offer lines they don't mind the public putting alot of money on.
Since lines are not a product of math, they can be considered a product of finesse. The lines are made and moved to give the public a perception of what kind of action the books are seeing. Lines are created and moved by humans. With so many games to manage, over time certain human tendancies will begin to form a pattern within line movement behavior. Each sport's line manipulation is executed differently, as each sport's gambler has a different mentality. Meaning, football line movement behavior differs from basketball. Furthermore, professional football line movement behavior differs from college football.
Line movement behavior naturally patterns itself over time. There are only so many numbers that are commonly used for point spreads and under-overs. For instance, many times we will see an NFL game having a -3 point spread. That -3 can move to -3.5 or -2.5 or -4.5 or whatever the book wants. Over the course of thousands of games, the behavior of moving certain numbers in a certain manner begins to repeat. The behavior of line movements may follow a pattern over time without the linesmaker even realizing. Deceptive line moves (the book moving a line to fake the public) can relate to each other as well as genuine line moves (the book moving a line to even out the money or lessen projected losses).
RoyalCoyle.com is designed to identify these patterns to be able to target which lines are deceptive and which are genuine.
* keep reading on about How We Cap with the links below Intro The Books Intentions The Books Favor
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